How former Austrian Chancellor Kurz tripped over his own ego

Sebastian Kurz was on a path to go down in history as the chancellor who managed the COVID-19 pandemic well and and safely steered his country through the crisis. That he and his team were capable of that has been proven by their reaction to the first COVID wave. But things were meant to go down a different path.

Austria, after the first wave of the pandemic, had been one of the countries with the fewest deaths throughout the entirety of Europe. Restrictions had been put in place and were executed rigurously, then relaxed cautiously and step by step. The population was fully onboard and rewarded the turqoise-green administration with poll numbers unseen in a very long time. The conservative Austrian People's Party (ÖVP) polled higher than they had in many years and the Greens were more popular than they had ever been. Ideally, the administration could have used that popularity to put into place precautions for the coming fall, when COVID case numbers were expected to rise again. The chancellor, however, did not choose to do so.

Although the ÖVP outpolled every other party by double digit margins and the chancellor's popularity left little to wish for, one politician was even more popular with the Autrian people than Kurz: Health Minister Rudi Anschober from the Green party. The chancellor only came in second. Kurz had always strived to be the most popular of them all and therefore, he did not like what he saw in the poll mirror.

Thus, a former successful cooperation between ÖVP and Greens - who had fought the first wave of the pandemic commitedly and had defeated it triumphantly - became a political game that was destined to end in the resignation of the health minister and over twelve thousand deaths. In face, the pandemic and the aftermath of this intrigue are still lasting and are felt every single day by people in intensive care units, many of whom will never rise again from their beds.

Whilst during the first COVID wave party politics had been set aside and the administration pulled together, created clear and effective strategies and concepts for the protection of the people and did everything they could to prevent infections, there should now be no more of it. The coalition partner had been declared an enemy that had to be brought down.

As schools were about to reopen in the fall of 2020 and students prepared to returned to their classrooms, the required measures were clear for all to see: The installation of air filters, along with further precautions, were meant to keep infection numbers in schools at a minimum. For the country to be ready in the face of rising case numbers that were known to come with falling temperatures, a master plan had been conceived: The COVID traffic light system ("Corona-Ampel"). Should case numbers rise in a particular district, measures would automatically go into effect without further ado in order to put down local outbreaks before they could spread. This strategy was meant to prevent the necessity of a nationwide full lockdown.

But the master plan was not going to be executed. Air filters were only installed much later on in a small number of classrooms. Supposedly, there was not enough money for air filters for every classroom, although the aquisition and installation would have been less expensive than the government aid to Austrian Airlines. Instead of filters, so goverment officials said, intermittent intense ventilation was more than enough. The traffic light system had it's teeth pulled. It was indeed implemented but local measures were not to be triggered automatically. Thus, every single COVID restriction became a political back and forth between officials on federal, state and municipal level. No one wanted to be the killjoy. Everyone was smarter than all the experts. Both chancellor and health minister refused to take responsibility. All this lead to a stalemate in which measures to break the longforeseen second COVID wave were only taken after it was already far too late. The over ten thousand people that would suffer the most under this political numbness and inaction did not live to tell the tale. The administration had forsaken them.

The wave was broken at last and case numbers declined again but the damage was done. Revenue not made can be replaced. People who lost their jobs can be aided financially. Work abandoned can be taken up again. But those who are dead cannot be brought back again. They are gone. Forever.

One more thing fell victim to the administration's COVID strategy or, more accurately, to the lack of such: The trust of the people. During the first wave, the Kurz administration had communicated everything clearly and in concert, had fought the pandemic as one team and guided the people along the way. Now, a chaotic web of measures and regulations had taken the place of clear cut rules and statements. A web that no one could see through. The back and forth between full and partial lockdown was not well received with the population. The trust gained during the first wave, which had already been eroded during the summer, faded. The catastrophic failure of law enforcement agencies prior to the terrorist attack in Vienna in November 2020, which claimed the lives of four people, took it's toll as well. Thus, the people did not lightly follow the restrictions put into place by an administration that had lost their trust.

The next step in the fight against the pandemic was the aqusition of vaccines in order to immunize the popultion against the disease. Sebastian Kurz faced harsh criticism for the slow start of the vaccination drive that had begun just by the end of 2020. But instead of reacting to the vaccine shortage with competency and honesty, Kurz decided that he preferred short term over long term success. In need of a quick popularity boost, he announced that he would ease the shortage by ordering doses of the russian vaccine Sputnik V. However, the vaccine deal did not end up taking place and Kurz postsequently denied any responsibility.

In the midst of all this chaos, health minister Rudi Anschober had to resign due to reasons of personal health. His position was filled by medical doctor Wolfgang Mückstein. Kurz, with his rival for popularity being out of politics, could, at this moment, have laid back and enjoyed his victory. But he already had new, different problems to deal with. Accusations of corruption against his finance minister Gernot Blümel, the ÖBAG affair around his trusted friend Thomas Schmid and a number of homes raided by the police in search of evidence regarding these matters tarnished the picture that Kurz liked to paint of himself. A new line of messaging was needed to keep the population satisfied and therefore, just like that, the pandemic was declared over. A strategy that was bound for disaster.

Although it way clear to many that this message was by no means even remotely true, a good part of the population felt a false sense of security. Many did not deem it necessary to get vaccinated, the pandemic was over anyway, so why bother? Massive cuts to the budget for vaccination advertisements contributed to this as well. False promises that the pandemic would be over for those vaccinated had the trust in the vaccines crumble. In a country where, just a few months earlier, people had struggled for vaccine doses and appointments, vaccine fatigue took over. The administration let the entire summer pass without taking any precautions for the coming fall, when school would start again. After all, the pandemic was over.

After schools opened again, the predictable result of Kurz' policy took effect: Case numbers started rising. First steadily, then exponentionally, then they exploded. All due to the lack of any countermeasures. This fourth wave is lasting to this day, with no end in sight. The number of daily deaths started climbing accordingly but has so far not reached last year's level, obviously thanks to the vaccine.

Today, Sebastian Kurz' time as chancellor may be over but his failed COVID policy is not. Despite him having had to resign in the face of corruption allegations, an affair concerning manipulated polls and under pressure from his Green coalition partner, his legacy lives on in the blockades the ÖVP is putting up against effective measures to prevent the full and total collapse of the Austrian health care system.

But what if Kurz, at the time, had decided differently? If he had governed as a team player, not as an egomaniac? If he had worked together with health minister Anschober towards strategies for protecting the people instead of sabotaging all such endeavours? If he had fought for decisive and targeted measures against the pandemic instead of against them? If he had worked to benefit the entire population and not just himself?

I dare to claim that, with a clear strategy and cooperation with all actors involved, including opposition parties, Kurz could have largely maintained his popularity. Solidarity throughout the whole country would have prevailed. Case and death numbers in the winter of 2020 would by far not have been as high as they were. Many lives would not have been lost. The corruption uncovered by numerous probes would still have stained the image of Kurz' supposedly flawless leadership but this would possibly have left many unaffected (not me). After all, he was the chancellor who successfully steered Austria through it's worst crisis in the 21^st century. This man could be forgiven one or two minor missteps. The rift between Turqoise and Green would, by far, not have been as deep and thus, Kurz may have overcome even the fake polls affair without taking substantial damage. In any case, his legagcy would have been the successful management of the COVID-19 pandemic. Sebastian Kurz, the man who defeated COVID. That's how he would go down in history.

Maybe I'm totally wrong here. Maybe the rifts within the administration would have opened along other lines, like refugee policy or social issues. Maybe the ÖVP would have found it harder to distract from the numerous scandals they were involved in and Kurz would still have fallen from grace with the people. Maybe the Greens, lacking the increased need for a stable government due to the COVID crisis, would have called for the resignation of certain ÖVP ministers much earlier. Maybe Kurz would still have had to go.

In any case, the legacy of Kurz would have been a different one. No confusion and chaos regarding COVID measures. No messed up messaging during the crisis. No delayed and lackluster acting. No exploding case numbers. No masses of traumatized children and young people. No overburdened doctors and nurses. No dead bodies biling up in hospital hallways. No conspiracies blocking hospital driveways. No countless mourning loved ones. And no over twelve thousand dead.